Michael Mandelbaum’s Warning About American Hegemony
In 2025, Michael Mandelbaum, a leading foreign-policy intellectual, published a book titled “The Case for Goliath: How America Acts as the World’s Government in the Twenty-First Century.” His thesis was that the same services individual nations provide their citizens, are provided on a global scope by the United States – defense, a basic rule of law, a stable monetary system, and others. He acknowledged the many flaws in American performance over the post-World War II years, but posited that this American hegemony was preferable to any other system.
Three Predictions About America’s Global Role
And he predicted:
- First, that it would last only until Americans tired of paying for it.
- Second that when this system collapsed, no country would step up to replace us and keep the system going, and
- Third, that no one would thank us for . . . 75 years of relative stability and prosperity, at least for the developed, leading nations.
Americans Grow Tired of Paying the Cost
Well, friends, that time has now come. Americans, anyway some of them, are tired of paying for American hegemony. As our esteemed president puts it, under this arrangement, we are being ripped off by – and especially by — our supposed allies in Europe, who spend lavishly on socialist welfare programs, but won’t ante up to finance their own defense. I hate to admit it, but Trump has a point.
NATO and the Burden of Defense Spending
For a couple of decades, American presidents, Republican and Democratic, have been – gently, because we are friends – asking NATO allies to commit to increasing their defense spending by a set percentage. Interestingly, it is the Greeks and the Turks, with still-vivid memories of Ottoman Empire hostilities – but hey, are not we on the same side now? — who have responded best to U.S. entreaties to shore up their defense budgets. Britain, Germany, France, Italy? Well, there is always some domestic need that — just temporarily, you understand – limits our opportunity to fulfill our commitment.
Trump’s Pressure Campaign Changes the Dynamic
Enter Donald Trump. Insults. Threats. My heavens, it’s working! Our allies are increasing their military spending; they take seriously Russian aggression and they know: 1) that they can no longer rely on the United States to be their military backbone; and 2) that therefore, going forward, they will be responsible for their own defense. Same goes in East Asia, where Japan and South Korea may be reconsidering their relations with the local hegemon, China.
Rebuilding Alliances in a Post-Trump World
Well, Mr. – or Madam — newly inaugurated President, congratulations and Happy Trails. It’s your first day, the inauguration went smoothly; on your First Day To-Do list, you have many, many “Items for Immediate Attention.” Perhaps none are more important than this: How can we rebuild our alliances – not only in Europe, but in Asia, and right here on our own continent with Canada and Mexico? These alliances are the key to dealing with many problems, such as climate change, peaceful trade and cultural exchange, and so on.
Cooperation or Global Bullying?
Or are we going to follow ex-President Trump’s leadership and consolidate our position as bully of the world?
Okay, square shoulders and proceed to step one. Phone NATO HQ, heads of Germany, Britain France, etc., EU head: “Our long global nightmare is over. America is back, ready to resume leadership role in the worldwide march of democracy and a rules-based international order.”
America’s Credibility Problem With Allies
And within the hour, these world leaders will reply with a horse laugh. After Trump’s first administration, eight years ago, you guys said exactly the same thing: Our long national nightmare is over. But it seems that it is not over. You voted again to put the same nightmare in your White House. How can we trust the American voter. “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.”
No longer. If allies refused eight years ago to believe that Donald Trump represented the American approach to the rest of the world, they believe it now. NATO’s European leaders are increasing their defense budgets. They are strategizing how – without American support — to defend the Baltic countries Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia – against Putinist ambitions to reconstitute the Russian Empire.
The World Has Moved Forward
There is no going back. As Marxists used to say, “The wheel of history moves only forward.” Too bad, my esteemed Marxists. You had some welcome insights, but History’s forward roll treated you pretty unsparingly. Have you learned any lessons, or are you content to lay the blame on capitalism?
A Final Appeal to America’s Next President
I can only pray that history’s forward roll finds a kinder way to bail out my foolish fellow Americans. Mr. President, on your first day, nothing is more important for the world than that you see your way to a corrective rebuttal of our “might-makes-right” world.
Submitted by Hal Piper
In response to the question: It is January 20, 2029 and a new President is inaugurated. If the new President asks you for advice, what do you think should be the first steps toward restoring a functional constitutional republic?